West Pacific/2015/08W/Archive/10
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 10 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 PM JST TUE JUN 23 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN... SUMMARY OF 12:00 PM JST...03:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------ LOCATION...19.3N 108.2E (Confidence: Low) ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF HAIKOU, CHINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INHG PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 12:00 pm JST, the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located near 19.3N, 108.2E, or about 135 miles (215 kilometers) southwest of Haikou, China. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 989 mb (hPa; 29.21 inHg), and the system was moving west at 7 knots (8 mph, 13 km/h). Kujira may intensify slightly prior to landfall late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------------------ Next complete advisory at 6:00 pm JST. $$ Forecaster TAWX14 Discussion TROPICAL STORM KUJIRA PUBLIC DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 PM JST TUE JUN 23 2015 Tropical Storm Kujira is difficult to assess all around this evening. There have been no recent microwave passes, no recent ASCAT passes, and the system has emerged into the Gulf of Tonkin over the past few hours, rendering surface observations unhelpful. Visible and infrared satellite animations indicate that Kujira has become slightly better organized since this time last night, with a large expanse of organized deep convection. Due to what has already been mentioned, the exact location of the low-level circulation is unknown, but it appears to be well embedded within the convective canopy. The 0232z satellite estimates from JTWC and SAB were T2.0/30kt; however, the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT value indicated T2.6/37kt. In the absence of any other available data, the initial intensity is being held at a possibly conservative 35kt. The cyclone appears to have continued on its steady westward track over the past few hours despite model projections for a northwest motion. One potential hypothesis is that the westward extension of the subtropical ridge east of the Philippines is stronger than anticipated, preventing a more poleward track. Taking this into consideration, the updated track forecast is further south than the previous package, now indicating a landfall south of the Vietnam-China border. The environment moving forward is not expected to be conducive for significant strengthening given moderate to strong easterly wind shear. However, the persistence of the deep convective mass in association with Kujira and its resultant latent heat release may temporarily allow anticyclonic flow to develop aloft. If this were to occur, the effects of strong upper-level winds would be somewhat negated, and Kujira may have an opportunity to strengthen slightly before landfall in approximately 24 hours or less. The updated forecast is similar to the previous one but shows quicker dissipation once inland. INIT 23/0300Z 19.3N 108.2E 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 19.9N 107.4E 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 20.2N 106.7E 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 20.8N 105.7E 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster TAWX14